Mainz Makes You Money
by Paul Mainwaring
Win Totals – The NFC
Yes, UKEndZone are setting me free from Dutts, and have allowed me to have my own weekly column. Each week, I will be looking at the weekly match-ups, and telling you who will win, and, if you like a bet, how to make some money* (*Not Guaranteed)
As I love you guys, before we get to the weekly match-ups, I thought we should look at the Over/Unders for each team. In Las Vegas, before each season, the casinos publish win totals. Now, as we all know, Las Vegas is built on people making stupid bets, however even Las Vegas gets it wrong, and this is where I come in.
In this two part article, I will look at win totals, and tell you which are certs and which you should avoid. One thing to bear in mind: The roster isn’t the main thing, the schedule is more important. You may have a playoff team, but if you play the NFC West and AFC North, the team won’t get as many wins as you think.
Let’s start with the strongest conference, the NFC.
Arizona Cardinals 5.5
The team finally has a competent QB, which is good news for Larry Fitzgerald and Cards fans. I like Bruce Arians at HC, add that to an already excellent defense, and I see a much better year than most. The schedule is favourable; with the NFC South, AFC South, Lions and Eagles all to play, I see seven wins, easy. Go OVER
Dallas Cowboys 8.5
As a Skins fan, I love beating on the Cowboys, but I’m being objective here, I promise. Romo to Bryant is fantasy gold, but their defense is truly awful. A schedule of the NFC North, AFC West, Saints and Rams is tougher than most would think, and with the East so tight, I see no way they get nine wins. Go UNDER
Chicago Bears 8.5
A new coach, offensive scheme, and a QB who personifies Big Arm, Small brain. Add that to a schedule of, NFC East, AFC North, Rams and Saints, and I am not sure where seven wins come from, never mind nine. Go UNDER
Mainz Says Avoid
San Francisco 49ers 11.5
I love the 49ers; they are a model organisation, and have all the pieces in place to go far. My issue is the schedule: NFC South, AFC South, Packers & Redskins, plus the six in division battles, which means confidently stating them over is impossible. On the other hand, with Jim Harbaugh and the strength of the roster, saying they can’t win 12 is just foolish. I think they win 11 so go UNDER, but avoid if you are clever.
Philadelphia Eagles 7
One year removed from the Dream Team, and we have a whole new staff in Philly. The schedule of NFC North, AFC West, Bucs and Cards is favourable, but how will they play? I think based on the roster and the new coaches they are the hardest team to rank this year. At a push, I would say UNDER, but don’t be a hero, avoid them.
Atlanta Falcons 10
I really think that last year was the best chance for Atlanta to get to the Promised Land. This year they are old in places you don’t want to be, and I think the division and conference have improved enough to block their passage. The Schedule is NFC West, AFC East, Redskins and Packers. I would go UNDER, but wouldn’t put money on it.
I didn’t want you to think I hadn’t thought about all the teams, so here are the rest, and what I would do.
New York Giants 9 – Over
Washington Redskins 8 – Push (Wimp’s way out, not jinxing my team)
Green Bay Packers 10 – Over
Minnesota Vikings 7.5 – Under
Detroit Lions 7.5 – Under
New Orleans Saints 9 – Push
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.5 – Under
Carolina Panthers 7 – Over
Seattle Seahawks 10.5 – Over
St Louis Rams 7.5 – Under
And there is the NFC!
My editor has asked me to say, UKEndZone take no responsibility if you lose money, goods or loved ones based on bets you make from this article, so please bet responsibly.
I will be back later in the week with the AFC. Until then happy betting!